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Extenuating the parameters using HEC-HMS hydrological model for ungauged catchment in the central Omo-Gibe Basin of Ethiopia
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Abstract: Characteristics of ungauged catchments can be studied from the hydrological model parameters of gauged catchments. In this research, discharge prediction was carried out in ungauged catchments using HEC-HMS in the central Omo-Gibe basin. Linear regression, spatial proximity, area ratio, and sub-basin mean were amalgamated for regionalization. The regional model parameters of the gauged catchment and physical characteristics of ungauged catchments were collated together to develop the equations to predict discharge from ungauged catchments. From the sensitivity analysis, crop coefficient (CC), storage coefficient (R), constant rate (CR), and time of concentration (TC) are found to be more sensitive than others. The model efficiency was evaluated using Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) which was greater than 0.75, varying between −10% and +10% and the coefficient of determination (R2) was approximated to be 0.8 during the calibration and validation period. The model parameters in ungauged catchments were determined using the regional model (linear regression), sub-basin mean, area ratio, and spatial proximity methods, and the discharge was simulated using the HEC-HMS model. Linear regression was used in the prediction where p-value ≤ 0.1, determination coefficient (R2) = 0.91 for crop coefficient (CC) and 0.99 for maximum deficit (MD). Constant rate (CR), maximum storage (MS), initial storage (IS), storage coefficient (R), and time of concentration (TC) were obtained. The result is that an average of 30 m3/s and 15 m3/s as the maximum monthly simulated flow for ungauged sub-catchments, i.e. Denchiya and Mansa of the main river basin .
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Key words:
- HEC-HMS /
- Regionalization /
- Stream flow simulation /
- Ungauged catchments /
- Omo-Gibe sub-basin
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Figure 1. Study Area a) Major river basins in Ethiopia, b) Omo-Gibe River Basin and selected sub-watersheds c) Selected sub-watersheds and rivers
Figure 6. Comparsion of average monthly simulated flow for selected sub-catchment of Lower Guma by using four regionalization method
Table 1. Summary of hydrologically gauged stations
No River Station/site Area (km2) Latitude/Degree Longitude/Degree 1 Upper Gojeb Near Shebe 3577 7.4 36.5 2 Gilgel Gibe Near Asendabo 2966 7.7 37.3 3 Upper Guma Near Andra 231.2 7.1 36.3 
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Table 2. Model parameters estimated for ungauged catchments using regional model
Ungauged catchments TC R IS MS ID MD CR K X CC Mansa 27 25 17 11 0.47 2.7 0.42 1.6 0.18 0.58 Zigna 25 26 18 11 0.39 2.6 0.24 0.6 0.18 0.67 Denchiya 26 26 18 11 0.46 2.6 0.25 0.6 0.18 0.82 Lower Guma 30 26 18 11 0.39 2.6 0.17 0.5 0.19 0.83 Lower Gojeb 52 29 23 9 0.47 2.8 0.35 1.6 0.23 0.84
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Table 3. Geographic and physiographic catchment characteristics correlation (R2) and Land Cover catchment characteristics correlation (R2)
Ungauged
CatchmentsGeographic and physiographic catchment characteristics correlation (R2) Land Cover catchment characteristics correlation (R2) Gauged catchments Gauged catchments Upper Guma Upper Gojeb Gilgel Gibe Upper Guma Upper Gojeb Gilgel Gibe Mansa 0.92 0.82 0.83 0.52 0.06 0.62 Zigna 0.90 0.85 0.85 0.03 0.06 0.03 Denchiya 0.87 0.84 0.83 0.01 0.08 0.01 Lower Guma 0.90 0.84 0.84 0.77 0.05 0.88 Lower Gojeb 0.56 0.96 0.92 0.58 0.08 0.67
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Table 4. Correlation of Soil catchment characteristics (R2) and Climate catchment characteristics (R2)
Ungauged
CatchmentsCorrelation of Soil catchment characteristics (R2) Climate catchment characteristics (R2) Gauged catchments Gauged catchments Upper Guma Upper Gojeb Gilgel Gibe Upper Guma Upper Gojeb Gilgel Gibe Mansa 0.35 0.37 0.11 1 1 1 Zigna 0.92 0.98 0.42 1 1 1 Denchiya 0.48 0.53 0.14 1 1 1 Lower Guma 0.93 0.98 0.41 1 1 1 Lower Gojeb 0.45 0.48 0.15 1 1 1
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Table 5. Correlation values between model parameters (MPs) and physical catchment characteristics (PCCs) for gauged catchments
PCCs TC R IS MS ID MD CR K X CC Avarge slope −0.64 −0.76 −0.44 −0.44 −0.98 −0.83 −0.99 −0.02 −0.77 −0.24 Longest flow path −0.64 −0.51 0.96 −0.96 −0.04 0.69 0.34 0.99 −0.50 −0.91 Mean elevation 0.99 0.97 −0.50 0.50 0.72 0.00 0.41 −0.82 0.96 0.94 Minimum elevation 0.89 0.95 0.05 −0.05 0.98 0.55 0.84 −0.38 0.96 0.60 Maximum elevation 0.57 0.44 −0.98 0.98 −0.04 −0.75 −0.42 −0.97 0.43 0.88 Sum stream length −0.40 −0.25 1.00 −1.00 0.4 0.87 0.59 0.90 −0.24 −0.76 Area −0.43 −0.29 1.00 −1.00 0.21 0.85 0.56 0.92 −0.27 −0.79 Perimeter −0.21 −0.06 0.98 −0.98 0.43 0.95 0.74 0.80 −0.04 −0.62 HI − − − − − − − − − − DD 0.44 0.29 −1.00 1.00 −0.20 −0.84 0.55 −0.92 0.28 0.79 CI 0.73 0.61 −0.92 0.92 0.16 −0.60 −0.23 −1.00 0.60 0.96 EL −0.99 −1.00 0.26 −0.26 −0.87 −0.26 −0.63 0.65 −1.00 −0.82 Basin shape 0.30 0.15 −0.99 0.99 −0.34 −0.91 −0.67 −0.85 0.13 0.69 Dystric nitosols −0.70 −0.80 −0.37 0.37 −0.99 −0.79 −0.97 0.06 −0.81 −0.31 Dystric fluvisols 1.00 1.00 −0.32 0.32 0.84 0.20 0.58 −0.69 1.00 0.86 Orthic acrisols 0.32 0.47 0.74 −0.74 0.83 0.98 0.98 0.38 0.48 −0.13 Dystric gleysols 0.09 −0.07 −0.95 0.95 −0.54 −0.98 −0.81 −0.71 −0.08 0.52 Leptosols −0.99 −0.96 0.50 0.50 −0.72 0.00 −0.41 −0.41 −0.96 −0.94 Cambisols −0.99 −0.96 0.50 −0.50 −0.72 0.00 −0.41 −0.41 −0.96 −0.94 Chromic vertisols 0.58 0.70 0.51 −0.51 0.96 0.87 1.00 0.10 0.71 0.16 Eutric cambisol −0.99 −0.96 0.50 −0.50 −0.72 0.00 −0.41 −0.41 −0.96 −0.94 Eutric nitosols −0.16 0.00 0.97 −0.97 0.48 0.96 0.77 0.77 0.01 −0.58 Orthic solonchaks −0.99 −0.96 0.50 −0.50 −0.72 0.00 −0.41 0.82 −0.96 −0.94 Gypsic yermosola −0.99 −0.96 0.50 −0.50 −0.72 0.00 −0.41 0.82 −0.96 −0.94 Eutric fluvisols 0.59 0.71 0.50 −0.50 0.96 0.87 0.99 0.08 0.72 0.18 Cultivation 0.99 1.00 −0.29 0.29 0.86 0.23 0.60 −0.67 1.00 0.84 Natural forest −0.98 −1.00 0.22 −0.22 −0.90 −0.30 −0.66 0.61 −1.00 −0.71 Shurb land − − − − − − − − − − Grass land −0.79 −0.68 0.88 −0.88 −0.24 0.53 0.14 1.00 −0.67 −0.98 Wood land − − − − − − − − − − SAAR −0.18 −0.33 −0.83 0.83 −0.74 −1.00 −0.94 −0.51 −0.34 0.28 MP dry −0.44 −0.57 −0.65 0.65 −0.90 −0.94 −1.00 −0.26 −0.59 0.00 MP wet −0.20 −0.35 −0.82 0.82 −0.76 −1.00 −0.95 −0.49 −0.36 0.25 PET 0.38 0.23 −1.00 1.00 −0.27 −0.88 −0.61 −0.89 0.21 0.75 Note: CI-Circularity index, DD-Drainage density, EL-Elongation Ratio, HI-Hypsometric integral, PET-Potential Evapo-transpiration, SAAR-Standard Annual Average Rainfall.
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