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Developing three-dimensional groundwater flow modeling for the Erbil Basin using Groundwater Modeling System (GMS)
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Abstract: This study presents the development of a comprehensive three-dimensional groundwater flow model for the Erbil Basin utilizing the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS). The Erbil Basin, situated in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, is a vital water resource area facing increasing water demands and environmental challenges. The three-dimensional nature of the groundwater flow system is crucial for accurately understanding and managing water resources in the basin. The modeling process involved data collection, geological and hydrogeological characterization, conceptual model development, and numerical simulation using GMS software MODFLOW 2000 package. Various parameters such as hydraulic conductivity, recharge rates, and boundary conditions were integrated into the model to represent the complex hydrogeological conditions of the basin. Model calibration was performed by comparing simulated groundwater levels with observed data from monitoring wells across the basin, using the automatic calibration method of automated Parameter Estimation (PEST). Pilot points were applied to adjust the hydraulic conductivity in the model area spatially. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the influence of key parameters on model predictions and to identify areas of uncertainty. The developed three-dimensional groundwater flow model provides valuable insights into the dynamics of groundwater flow, recharge-discharge mechanisms, and potential impacts of future scenarios such as climate change and water resource management strategies. It serves as a useful tool for decision-makers, water resource managers, and researchers to evaluate different management scenarios and formulate sustainable groundwater management policies for the Erbil Basin. In conclusion, this study demonstrates the effectiveness of using GMS for developing three-dimensional groundwater flow models in complex hydrogeological settings like the Erbil Basin, contributing to improved understanding and management of groundwater resources in the region.
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Key words:
- Aquifer System /
- Erbil Basin /
- Groundwater Management /
- GMS /
- MODFLOW
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Figure 2. Geological Formations of Erbil basin modified after (Shekhmamundy and Surdashy, 2022)
Figure 3. The information on average rainfall, recharge, runoff, evaporation of Erbil Basin
Figure 12. Parameter sensitivity of the hydraulic conductivity values used for PEST pilot points
Table 1. Input data for MODFLOW 2000 package in GMS software
Conceptual model Descriptions of the items Model domain Cell sizes (500 m by 500 m) by 600 m as thickness of the aquifer Boundary condition River's conductance = 2.74 and 2.29 m2/d for Greater and lesser Zab Rivers, respectively Greater Zab River upstream head stage = 279 m and river bottom 277 m
Downstream node GZ= 215 m and 213 m
Lesser Zab River upstream head stage = 270 m and river bottom 268 m
Downstream node = 252 m and 250 mAquifer types coverage Define hydraulic conductivity for each aquifer type in LPF package Recharge coverage (RCH) Recharge cells are defined by the polygon of the model area (RCH) with initial recharge rate of 0.000385 m/d, approximately 10% to 40% of average annual rainfall. Surface water bodies are also included. Existing wells coverage Number of the production wells: 8384 
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Table 2. The Hydraulic conductivity ranges (Freeze and Cherry, 1979)
Descriptions of the rock types Kmin /m/d Kmax /m/d Unconsolidated deposits Coarse gravel 864 8,640 Sands and gravels 0.864 864 Fine sands, silts 0.0000864 0.864 Clay, shale, glacial 8.64E-09 0.0000864 Hard rocks Dolomitic limestone 0.864 86.4 Weathered chalk 0.864 86.4 Limestone 0.0000864 0.0864 Sandstone 0.00000864 8.64 Granite, Gneis, Compact basalt 8.64E-09 0.0000864
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Table 3. The values of errors in PEST application
Descriptions Symbol Values Mean Residual (Head) ME −0.03 Mean Absolute Residual (Head) MAE 0.24 Root Mean Squared Residual (Head) RMSE 0.36
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Table 4. Water budget information
Descriptions Flow in /m3/d Flow out /m3/d Wells 0 −840,230.40 River Leakage 10,237.45 −78,636.69 Recharge 910,633.68 0 Total Source/Sink 920,871.13 −920,871.09 Zone Flow Total Flow 920,871.13 −920,871.09 Summary In - Out % difference Total 0.040 4.35E−06
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