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Evaluation of water quality and water resources carrying capacity using a varying fuzzy pattern recognition model: A case study of small watersheds in Hilly Region
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Abstract: Water scarcity and environment deterioration have become main constraints to sustainable economic and social development. Scientifically assessing Water Resources Carrying Capacity (WRCC) is essential for the optimal allocation of regional water resources. The hilly area at the northern foot of Yanshan Mountains is a key water conservation zone and an important water source for Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Grasping the current status and temporal trends of water quality and WRCC in representative small watersheds within this region is crucial for supporting rational water resources allocation and environment protection efforts. This study focuses on Pingquan City, a typical watershed in northern Hebei Province. Firstly, evaluation index systems for surface water quality, groundwater quality and WRCC were established based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework. Then, comprehensive evaluations of water quality and WRCC at the sub-watershed scale were conducted using the Varying Fuzzy Pattern Recognition (VFPR) model. Finally, the rationality of the evaluation results was verified, and future scenarios were projected. Results showed that: (1) The average comprehensive evaluation scores for surface water and groundwater quality in the sub-watersheds were 1.44 and 1.46, respectively, indicating that both met the national Class II water quality standard and reflected a high-quality water environment. (2) From 2010 to 2020, the region's WRCC steadily improved, with scores rising from 2.99 to 2.83 and an average of 2.90, suggesting effective water resources management in Pingquan City. (3) According to scenario-based prediction, WRCC may slightly decline between 2025 and 2030, reaching 2.92 and 2.94, respectively, relative to 2020 levels. Therefore, future efforts should focus on strengthening scientific management and promoting the efficient use of water resources. Proactive measures are necessary to mitigate emerging contradiction and ensure the long-term stability and sustainability of the water resources system in the region. The evaluation system and spatiotemporal evolution patterns proposed in this study can provide a scientific basis for refined water resource management and ecological conservation in similar hilly areas.
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Figure 1. Location of Pingquan City and the surface water and groundwater sampling sites (Ⅰ: Puhe River Basin; Ⅱ: Laoniuhe River Basin; Ⅲ: Qinglonghe River Basin; Ⅳ: Laohahe River Basin; Ⅴ: Dalinghe River Basin)
Figure 2. Land use patterns of Pingquan City (Ⅰ: Puhe River Basin; Ⅱ: Laoniuhe River Basin; Ⅲ: Qinglonghe River Basin; Ⅳ: Laohahe River Basin; Ⅴ: Dalinghe River Basin)
Figure 3. Evaluation results of surface water quality in Pingquan (Ⅰ: Puhe River Basin; Ⅱ: Laoniuhe River Basin; Ⅲ: Qinglonghe River Basin; Ⅳ: Laohahe River Basin; Ⅴ: Dalinghe River Basin)
Figure 5. Evaluation results of groundwater quality in Pingquan (Ⅰ: Puhe River Basin; Ⅱ: Laoniuhe River Basin; Ⅲ: Qinglonghe River Basin; Ⅳ: Laohahe River Basin; Ⅴ: Dalinghe River Basin)
Figure 9. Uncertainty analysis of VFPR model (colored bars are original average values of VFPR, solid black dots indicate Monte Carlo simulation means, error bars are 95% confidence intervals)
Figure 10. Comparison of WRCC evaluation results between Pingquan City and Chengde City
Table 1. Statistical summary of major rivers in Pingquan City
River River class Watershed area /km2 Proportion /% Source location Receiving body Laohahe River Primary tributary of Liao River 909.9 27.6 Dawopu Village, Liuxi Manchu Township Liao River Dalinghe River Primary tributary of Liao River 427.1 13.0 Laowopu Village, Taitoushan Township Bohai Sea Qinglonghe River Primary tributary of Luan River 339.6 10.3 Fengjiadian Village, Songshutai Township Luan River Laoniuhe River Primary tributary of Luan River 279.9 8.5 Fenghuangling Village, Qigou Township Luan River Puhe River Primary tributary of Luan River 1,337.5 40.6 Anzhangzi Village, Wolong Township Luan River Total 3,294 100 
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Table 2. Analytical methods and detection limits for water quality indicators
Indicator Analytical methods Detection limit/mg/L Chloride Silver Nitrate Titration Method DZ/T0064.50-2021 \ Nitrate Ultraviolet Spectrophotometry DZ/T0064.59-2021 0.08 pH Electrode Method HJ1147-2020 \ COD Acidic Potassium Permanganate Titration Method DZ/T0064.68-2021 \ Ammonia Nitrogen Nessler Reagent Photometric Method DZ/T0064.57-2021 \ Fluoride Ion Chromatography DZ/T 0064.54-2021 0.1 Iron Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry DZ/T 0064.25-2021 0.016 Total Phosphorus Ammonium Molybdate Spectrophotometric Method GB/T 11893-1989 0.01 Zinc Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry DZ/T 0064.83-2021 0.05 TDS Gravimetric Method DZ/T0064.9-2021 0.1 Nitrite Spectrophotometry DZ/T 0064.60-2021 0.0002
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Table 3. Index system and water quality standard for surface water /mg/L
Class Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅴ Indicator Chloride 250 250 250 300 500 Nitrate 10 10 10 15 20 pH (Dimensionless) 6–9 <6 or >9 COD 15 15 20 30 40 Ammonia Nitrogen 0.15 0.5 1 1.5 2 Fluoride 1 1 1 1.5 1.5 Iron ≤0.3 Total Phosphorus 0.02 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Zinc 0.05 1 1 2 2
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Table 4. Index system and water quality standard for groundwater /mg/L
Class Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅴ Indicator TDS 300 500 1,000 2,000 2,000 Chloride 50 150 250 350 350 Iron ≤0.3 Zinc 0.05 0.5 1 5 5 COD 1 2 3 10 10 Ammonia Nitrogen 0.02 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.5 Nitrite 0.01 0.1 1 4.8 4.8 Nitrate 2 5 20 30 30 Fluoride 1 1 1 2 2
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Table 5. WRCC index system and grading criteria
Indicator system Grade Subsystems Indicators Unit 1 2 3 4 5 Pressure (WRPCC) Water consumption per capita m3/person 200 300 400 600 900 Per capita ecosystem water use m3/person 50 20 10 5 3 Water consumption intensity per GDP unit m3/104 Yuan 80 110 250 600 700 Wastewater discharge per GDP unit m3/104 Yuan 7 10 15 20 30 Population density person/km2 10 100 300 600 1,000 Per capita GDP Yuan/person 50,000 35,000 21,000 7,000 4,000 Share of tertiary industry in GDP % 55 50 45 40 35 State (WRSCC) Modulus of water production 104 m3/km2 120 90 50 10 5 Water resources per capita m3/person 3,000 2,200 1,700 1,000 500 Annual precipitation mm 1,600 800 600 400 200 Exploitation rate of water resources % 10 20 40 60 100 Share of groundwater on total water supply % 5 20 30 40 50 Share of alternative water resources % 5 2.5 1 0.5 0.1 Urbanization rate % 30 40 60 80 90 Response (WRRCC) Agricultural water use intensity m3/104 Yuan 600 800 1,200 1,500 2,000 Industrial water use intensity m3/104 Yuan 25 45 70 110 150 Ecological water use proportion % 5 3 2 1 0.5
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Table 6. Evaluation grades of Water Resources Carrying Capacity (WRCC)
Grade State Characterization of the grade I Extra High Human activities have minimal impact on water resources and the water environment. Water resources are abundant with high development potential and a good water ecosystem that can support rapid economic and social development. II High Human activities have relatively limited impact on water resources and the environment. Water supply and demand are basically balanced, but it is necessary to optimize the structure of water use and vigilance against localized pressure. III Moderate Human activities exert a moderate impact on water resources and the environment. The use is generally reasonable, but supply-demand tension is emerging. It is necessary to strengthen water conservation management and controlled development scale. The water ecosystem shows some degradation, though basic functionality maintains. IV Slight Low Human activities significantly affect water resources and the environment. Water shortage is evident, with reliance on external water transfers. The water ecosystem is severely damaged, system functionality is greatly affected, and ecological degradation risks are high. V Low Human activities severely threaten water resources and the environment. Water resources are seriously scarce, ecological crises are prominent, requiring strict water use restrictions and implementation of inter-basin water transfers.
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