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Attenuation of hydroclimatic influence on groundwater dynamics under anthropogenic stress: A decadal spatiotemporal analysis in Jaipur, India
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Abstract: Groundwater constitutes the primary freshwater resource in semi-arid regions, where low and erratic rainfall combined with high evapotranspiration limit effective recharge. Jaipur, a rapidly expanding metropolitan city in western India, is experiencing increasing groundwater stress due to the combined influence of climatic variability and anthropogenic pressures. While groundwater depletion in Rajasthan is well documented, the extent to which interannual climatic variability, particularly rainfall fluctuations, translates into measurable groundwater-level response in urban fractured hard-rock aquifer systems remains uncertain. This study evaluates groundwater-level dynamics (2013–2023) in relation to climatic variability and examines the apparent decoupling between climatic signals and groundwater response under combined hydrogeological and anthropogenic influences in Jaipur. Groundwater and gridded climatic datasets were analyzed using geospatial mapping, kriging-based spatial interpolation, and correlation-based statistical approaches. Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall correlation methods were employed to assess statistical relationships. Interannual groundwater variations were further analyzed to characterize temporal depletion patterns. In addition, event-based proxy analysis using extreme precipitation indices (R×1d and R×5d) was conducted to evaluate the influence of short-duration and cumulative rainfall events on groundwater response. Results indicate weak and spatially inconsistent relationships between climatic variables and groundwater levels, suggesting that groundwater response cannot be adequately explained by linear climatic relationships alone and is influenced by non-linear and lagged recharge processes. A strong inverse correlation between relative humidity and evapotranspiration (r = −0.9272, p < 0.0001) highlights the dominant role of atmospheric moisture conditions in regulating evapotranspiration fluxes, with implications for reduced effective recharge. These findings suggest that groundwater dynamics in the study area exhibit partial decoupling from climatic variability, likely driven by hydrogeological constraints and sustained anthropogenic pressures. This underscores the importance of adopting integrated groundwater management strategies that account for both climatic variability and anthropogenic pressures.
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Figure 4. Year-wise spatial distribution of annual maximum groundwater levels (2013-2023)
Figure 5. Year-wise Spatial distribution of annual minimum groundwater levels (2013–2023)
Figure 6. Hydrographs (2013–2023) of maximum and minimum groundwater levels (GWL) for representative wells, illustrating temporal trends and spatial variability under hydroclimatic and anthropogenic influences
Figure 8. Interannual variability of event-based rainfall indices (R×1d and R×5d) and corresponding mean groundwater levels (2013–2023)
Figure 9. Correlation between maximum 1-d rainfall (R×1d) and groundwater levels, and between 5-d cumulative rainfall (R×5d) and groundwater levels
Figure 12. Comparison of correlation coefficients between rainfall and groundwater levels using Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall methods
Table 1. Details of climatic datasets used in this study
Data Source Resolution Link/Citation Precipitation CHIRPS 0.05° (–5 km) UCSB Climate Hazards Group (CHIRPS Daily), https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/UCSB-CHG_CHIRPS_DAILY ET ERA5 0.1° x 0.1° (– 9 km) ECMWF ERA5-Land Daily Aggregated, https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/ECMWF_ERA5_LAND_DAILY_AGGR RH ERA5 0.1° x 0.1° (– 9 km) ECMWF ERA5-Land Daily Aggregated, https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/ECMWF_ERA5_LAND_DAILY_AGGR 
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Table 2. Annual mean values of relative humidity and evapotranspiration.
Year Mean_RH Mean_ET 2013 54.0554 0.2917 2014 50.6243 0.9915 2015 51.7037 0.8814 2016 50.4135 0.9814 2017 47.1167 1.1913 2018 47.4670 1.1714 2019 54.6859 0.2516 2020 52.1585 0.7915 2021 51.8610 0.8314 2022 51.9684 0.8616 2023 54.4699 0.2316
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