Groundwater level response to different withdrawal scenarios (Case study: Talesh Aquifer, Iran)

Reza Seraj Ebrahimi; Saeid Eslamian; Mohammad Javad Zareian

doi:10.26599/JGSE.2026.9280079

Volume 14 Issue 2

Jun. 2026

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Ebrahimi RS, Eslamian S, Zareian MJ. 2026. Groundwater level response to different withdrawal scenarios (Case study: Talesh Aquifer, Iran). Journal of Groundwater Science and Engineering, 14(2): 199-212 doi: 10.26599/JGSE.2026.9280079

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Groundwater level response to different withdrawal scenarios (Case study: Talesh Aquifer, Iran)

doi: 10.26599/JGSE.2026.9280079

1.
Department of Civil Engineering, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
2.
Department of Water Science and Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran
3.
Department Water Resources Study and Research, Water Research Institute (WRI), Tehran, Iran

More Information

Corresponding author: m.zareian@wri.ac.ir
Received Date: 2025-03-28
Accepted Date: 2025-12-25

Available Online: 2026-04-30

Publish Date: 2026-06-30

Abstract

Abstract

Groundwater resources are vital for sustaining agricultural productivity and ecological balance, particularly in regions facing increasing water demand and climatic variability. This study investigates the response of groundwater levels to different withdrawal scenarios in the Talesh aquifer, northern Iran, using MODFLOW (Modular Finite-Difference Groundwater Flow Model) integrated with the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS) software (Version 10.4). The model was calibrated and validated using observed data from 2005 to 2018 under both steady and transient conditions. Seven scenarios of groundwater extraction were simulated, including 5%, 10% and 15% increases and decreases relative to the baseline withdrawal rates, to evaluate potential impacts on groundwater storage and sustainability from 2019 to 2024. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Error (ME) confirmed the model's reliability in reproducing observed groundwater levels. Results indicated that maintaining current groundwater withdrawal rates leads to continued groundwater level declines of up to approximately 3.12 m in localized areas of the aquifer, whereas a 15% reduction in groundwater withdrawals can result in substantial groundwater recovery, with water level rises exceeding 2.40 m at specific locations during the simulation period. The results of this study highlight the critical necessity of groundwater withdrawal management policies to balance groundwater withdrawal with natural recharge, ensure water security and support sustainable agriculture.
- Aquifer sustainability,
- Hydrogeological simulation,
- Groundwater recharge,
- MODFLOW,
- Scenario analysis,
- Spatial modeling

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References(24)

References

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2305-7068/© Journal of Groundwater Science and Engineering Editorial Office. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)

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