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Abstract: This study investigates the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation patterns across four governorates in southern Iraq—Basrah, Thi Qar, Al Muthanna, and Messan—using an integrated modeling framework that combines the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) with three CMIP5-based Global Climate Models (Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2 - Earth System (HadGEM2-ES)), European Community Earth-System Model (EC-Earth), and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5). Projections were generated for three future time periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2061–2080) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). By integrating high-resolution climate simulations with localized drought risk analysis, this study provides a detailed outlook on climate change trends in the region. The novelty of this research lies in its high-resolution, station-level analysis and its integration of localized statistical downscaling techniques to enhance the spatial applicability of coarse GCM outputs. Model calibration and validation were performed using historical climate data (1990–2020), resulting in high accuracy across all stations (R2 = 0.91–0.99; RMSE = 0.19–2.78), thus reinforcing the robustness of the projections. Results indicate a significant rise in average annual maximum and minimum temperatures, with increases ranging from 0.88°C to 3.68°C by the end of the century, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario. Precipitation patterns exhibit pronounced interannual variability, with the highest predicted increases reaching up to 19.26 mm per season, depending on the model and location. These shifts suggest heightened vulnerability to drought and water scarcity, particularly in already arid regions such as Muthanna and Thi Qar. The findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive strategies in water resource management and agricultural planning, providing decision-makers with region-specific climate insights critical for sustainable development under changing climate conditions.
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Figure 2. Geological map of Iraq (Al-Ansari et al. 2021)
Figure 3. Groundwater movement in the Southeast part of Iraq (Al-Bahrani et al. 2022)
Figure 5. The coefficient of determination (R2) between the observed and the simulated data for rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature
Figure 10. Annual minimum temperature difference between the simulated values for the three periods and the observed value
Figure 11. Annual maximum temperature difference between the simulated values for the three periods and the observed value
Figure 14. Alterations in the forecasted annual temperatures in the future of the four stations
Figure 15. (a) The spatial distribution of projected temperature changes relative to the historical baseline (1990–2021), and (b) the projected average temperatures under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for the future (2021–2080)
Table 1. The selected stations
Station Longitude Latitude Elevation Basra 47.78 30.52 2.0 Thi Qar 46.23 31.02 5.0 Muthanah 45.27 31.27 11.0 Messan 47.17 31.83 9.0 
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Table 2. The selected GCMs from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Models
No. GCM Research center RCP MICRO5 Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan 4.5, 8.5 HadGEM2-ES Met Office Hadley Center, United Kingdom 4.5, 8.5 EC-Earth European Community Earth-System Model 4.5, 8.5
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Table 3. Assessment of wet and dry Seasons for the Four Stations
Season Wet/dry N K–S P value Assessment Messan Station DJF Wet 12 0.010 1.000 Perfect DJF Dry 12 0.058 1.000 Perfect MAM Wet 12 0.050 1.000 Perfect MAM Dry 12 0.265 0.341 Poor JJA Wet 12 0.000 1.000 Perfect JJA Dry 12 0.305 0.193 Poor SON Wet 12 0.092 1.000 Perfect SON Dry 12 0.083 1.000 Perfect Thi-Qar Station DJF Wet 12 0.037 1.000 Perfect DJF Dry 12 0.055 1.000 Perfect MAM Wet 12 0.025 1.000 Perfect MAM Dry 12 0.207 0.655 Good JJA Wet 12 0.130 0.984 Very good JJA Dry 12 0.435 0.017 Poor SON Wet 12 0.018 1.000 Perfect SON Dry 12 0.098 1.000 Perfect Basrah Station DJF Wet 12 0.032 1.000 Perfect DJF Dry 12 0.065 1.000 Perfect MAM Wet 12 0.045 1.000 Perfect MAM Dry 12 0.185 0.783 Very good JJA Wet 12 0.087 1.000 Perfect JJA Dry 12 0.566 0.001 Poor SON Wet 12 0.089 1.000 Perfect SON Dry 12 0.112 0.997 Very good Muthanah Station DJF Wet 12 0.062 1.000 Perfect DJF Dry 12 0.015 1.000 Perfect MAM Wet 12 0.162 0.897 Very good MAM Dry 12 0.297 0.218 Poor JJA Wet 12 0.174 0.842 Very good JJA Dry 12 0.261 0.359 Poor SON Wet 12 0.043 1.000 Perfect SON Dry 12 0.156 0.920 Very good
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Table 4. K-S (Kolmogorov-Smirnov) Test for the distributions of daily rainfall for the four studied stations
Season N K–S P value Assessment Mesan Station J 12 0.065 1.000 Perfect F 12 0.130 0.984 Very good M 12 0.077 1.000 Perfect A 12 0.094 1.000 Perfect M 12 0.223 0.560 Good J 12 0.652 0.000 Poor J 12 No precipitation A 12 No precipitation S 12 1.000 0.000 Poor O 12 0.219 0.584 Good N 12 0.130 0.984 Very good D 12 0.204 0.673 Good Thi-Qar Station J 12 0.142 0.962 Very good F 12 0.124 0.990 Very good M 12 0.138 0.971 Very good A 12 0.135 0.976 Very good M 12 0.063 1.000 Perfect J 12 0.348 0.096 Poor J 12 No precipitation A 12 No precipitation S 12 0.478 0.006 Poor O 12 0.146 0.952 Very good N 12 0.134 0.978 Very good D 12 0.235 0.492 Good Basrah Station J 12 0.055 1.000 Perfect F 12 0.085 1.000 Perfect M 12 0.160 0.905 Very good A 12 0.043 1.000 Perfect M 12 0.059 1.000 Perfect J 12 0.653 0.000 Poor J 12 No precipitation A 12 No precipitation S 12 No precipitation O 12 0.368 0.067 Poor N 12 0.147 0.949 Very good D 12 0.070 1.000 Perfect Muthanah Station J 12 0.156 0.920 Very good F 12 0.075 1.000 Perfect M 12 0.104 0.999 Very good A 12 0.134 0.978 Very good M 12 0.055 1.000 Perfect J 12 0.304 0.196 Poor J 12 No precipitation A 12 No precipitation S 12 1.000 0.000 Poor O 12 0.154 0.927 Very good N 12 0.133 0.979 Very good D 12 0.056 1.000 Perfect
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Table 5. Statistical analysis of the model calibration and validation over the observation period (1990–2020)
Station Climate variable R2 RMSE Muthanah Rainfall 0.9526 2.19823 Tmax 0.9994 0.286138 Tmin 0.9996 0.1904 Basrah Rainfall 0.9725 2.3078 Tmax 0.9994 0.2747 Tmin 0.9997 0.246813 Thi Qar Rainfall 0.9188 2.0364 Tmax 0.9995 0.2755 Tmin 0.9994 0.2243 Messan Rainfall 0.9537 2.7774 Tmax 0.9994 0.2747 Tmin 0.9992 0.2745
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