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Groundwater level response to different withdrawal scenarios (Case study: Talesh Aquifer, Iran)
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Abstract: Groundwater resources are vital for sustaining agricultural productivity and ecological balance, particularly in regions facing increasing water demand and climatic variability. This study investigates the response of groundwater levels to different withdrawal scenarios in the Talesh aquifer, northern Iran, using MODFLOW (Modular Finite-Difference Groundwater Flow Model) integrated with the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS) software (Version 10.4). The model was calibrated and validated using observed data from 2005 to 2018 under both steady and transient conditions. Seven scenarios of groundwater extraction were simulated, including 5%, 10% and 15% increases and decreases relative to the baseline withdrawal rates, to evaluate potential impacts on groundwater storage and sustainability from 2019 to 2024. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Error (ME) confirmed the model's reliability in reproducing observed groundwater levels. Results indicated that maintaining current groundwater withdrawal rates leads to continued groundwater level declines of up to approximately 3.12 m in localized areas of the aquifer, whereas a 15% reduction in groundwater withdrawals can result in substantial groundwater recovery, with water level rises exceeding 2.40 m at specific locations during the simulation period. The results of this study highlight the critical necessity of groundwater withdrawal management policies to balance groundwater withdrawal with natural recharge, ensure water security and support sustainable agriculture.
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Figure 6. Locations of piezometers in the GMS grid system for the steady-state condition
Figure 8. Spatial distribution of hydrogeological parameters in the Talesh aquifer: (a) Hydraulic conductivity (K); (b) Recharge (R); (c) Anisotropy (A) and (d) Specific yield (Sy)
Figure 9. Comparison between observed and calculated groundwater level during unsteady calibration state
Figure 10. Variations of groundwater level in different scenarios
Notes: (a) baseline-2019; (b) constant withdrawal for 2024; (c) 5% reduction in withdrawal for 2024; (d) 5% increase in withdrawal for 2024; (e) 10% reduction in withdrawal for 2024; (f) 10% increase in withdrawal for 2024; (g) 15% reduction in withdrawal for 2024; (h) 15% increase in withdrawal for 2024
Table 1. Groundwater balance in steady state
Input (MCM) Output (MCM) Difference (MCM) 1.923 1.916 0.007 
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Table 2. Error values in different levels of calibration and verification of GMS
Year ME (m) MAE (m) RMSE 2005—2006 (Steady-state calibration phase) −0.51 0.36 0.32 2005—2015 (Unsteady calibration phase) 0.28 0.18 0.28 2015—2018 (Verification phase) −0.41 0.29 0.36
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Table 3. Groundwater balance of the Talesh aquifer in the unsteady state
Year Input (MCM) Output (MCM) Difference (MCM) 2005 124.96 130.28 −5.32 2006 139.90 144.44 −4.54 2007 140.49 146.31 −5.82 2008 128.09 132.96 −4.87 2009 144.96 150.88 −5.92 2010 146.79 153.78 −6.99 2011 136.59 144.51 −7.92 2012 144.27 148.24 −3.97 2013 138.01 142.54 −4.54 2014 138.40 146.99 −8.59 2015 137.62 143.69 −6.07 2016 137.09 146.49 −9.40 2017 150.24 156.43 −6.18 2018 142.10 151.06 −8.96 Average 139.25 145.62 −6.37
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Table 4. Groundwater balance (MCM) under different groundwater management scenarios
Year Constant withdrawal Withdrawal increase/% Withdrawal decrease/% 5 10 15 5 10 15 2019 −6.58 −6.91 −7.19 −7.52 −6.30 −5.92 −5.45 2020 −7.35 −7.44 −8.08 −8.45 −6.88 −6.71 −6.22 2021 −5.21 −5.42 −5.79 −6.03 −4.90 −4.61 −4.32 2022 −4.25 −4.54 −4.71 −4.96 −3.91 −3.73 −3.41 2023 −7.66 −8.14 −8.39 −8.86 −7.17 −6.84 −6.48 2024 −6.44 −6.79 −7.12 −7.46 −6.14 −5.74 −5.43 Average −6.25 −6.54 −6.88 −7.21 −5.88 −5.59 −5.22
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